Friday, December 20, 2013

Where Could OV Get To?

Today, OV scored his 400th career goal, becoming the 6th fastest player in NHL history to reach that sensational milestone.

Alex Ovechkin is still only 28, and still has seven years left on his contract after this year. He could easily play until he is 40. Assuming he does, what could be his goal-scoring ceiling?

Usually, the great players produce less after the age of 28. Still, Ovechkin scored 400 in a little more than eight years, and has a little under 12 left if he plays till the ripe old age of 40.

Assuming a gradual decrease in production over these next years, when does he hit his next major milestones?

500 goals: OV could easily end with about 430-440 goals season. If OV scores 50 goals next year, hitting 500 will be easy for him in 2015-2016.

600 goals: He will probably end 2016 with about 520-530 goals. If he averages 'just' 40 goals per season the next two years, he would reach 600 in 2018. More likely he will average about 45 per year.

700 goals: He could reach 700 easily by averaging more than 40 a year for the next two years, and he could easily hit 700 in 2020.

At this point, OV is just 34. Even if it takes him a few more years, he could still hit 700 by his contract expiry in 2021, at the age of 35. From then, assuming he plays for another 5 years (hopefully for the Caps), even averaging 20-30 goals a year, he could easily hit 800-850 goals, and end his career in second place all time in goals.

We're taking a lot of assumptions here. For one, we're assuming he doesn't get injured, as well as that he plays another 12 years and continues to produce during that time.

Still, it's nice to think about.

1 comment:

  1. Funny, I was thinking about this very topic the other day.
    It will be interesting to see how he does in the next few years, as this is what I personally think will determine how he does over his entire career