Sunday, April 12, 2015

Breaking Down the Caps-Isles First Round Series

Playoff hockey is back in DC.

For the first time in 2 years, Caps hockey will extend through April, when the Caps host the New York Islanders in the first round of the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

The Caps and Isles finished off the regular season with 101 points each and the same number of Regulation + OT wins (40), but the Caps receive home ice because they won the season series over the Islanders, taking 6 points vs. 5.


Capitals Islanders Regular Season Series
Date (Location)
Result
November 26 (New York)
Islanders 3-2 (OT)
November 28 (Washington)
Capitals 5-2
December 29 (New York)
Islanders 4-3 (OT)
February 21 (Washington)
Capitals 3-2 (SO)

Given that the home team won every game of the season series, it was very important that the Caps got home-ice advantage. It has added significance when one considers that this is the last season for the Isles' famed Nassau Coliseum. The Islanders will be playing in Barclays Center in Brooklyn starting from next year.

Here is the full schedule for the playoffs, with dates, locations, and TV listings:

Capitals Islanders Schedule
Date
Time
Location
TV Listings
Wednesday April 15
7 pm
Washington
CSN, USA
Friday April 17
7 pm
Washington
CSN, NBCSN
Sunday April 19
12 pm
New York
NBC
Tuesday April 21
7:30 pm
New York
CSN. USA
*Thursday April 23
TBD
Washington
TBD
*Saturday April 25
TBD
New York
TBD
*Monday April 27
TBD
Washington
TBD
* - if necessary

This is the first playoff meeting between the Caps and Isles since 1993, when Dale Hunter infamously cheap-shot Pierre Turgeon after the latter scored the series-clinching goal. Other than that meeting, the Caps and Isles have had a long, treacherous playoff history. Only the Pittsburgh Penguins have caused more heartbreak to Caps fans than the Isles have.

Capitals Islanders Playoff History
Year
Result
1983
Islanders 3-1
1984
Islanders 4-1
1985
Islanders 3-2
1986
Capitals 3-0
1987
Islanders 4-3
1993
Islanders 4-2

However, this is a new Caps team, one that is completely different from those of years prior. This year's Caps have solid offensive depth, a lockdown defensive corps, and an elite goalie who has been playing at a high level all year.

The Islanders are not to be a team to be looked over, however. With John Tavares and Kyle Okposo leading the offense, Johnny Boychuk and Nick Leddy anchoring a solid defense, and Jaroslav Halak performing admirably in goal, the Isles have the ability to do some damage in the playoffs.

Here is how the Caps and Isles compare in some basic stats:

Capitals Islanders Regular Season Stats
Stat
Capitals
Islanders
Goals/Game Played
2.89
2.99
Goals Against/Game Played
2.43
2.73
5-5 For/Against
1.08
1.08
Power Play %
25.3
18.7
Penalty Kill %
81.2
78.0
Shots/Game Played
29.5
33.8
Shots Against/Game Played
28.9
28.3
Faceoff %
51.2
49.2

These are two teams that play very different styles of hockey. The Caps are much more of a physical, muck-it-up sort of team, whereas the Isles are a free-flowing team that relies on speed and skill, a team reminiscent of the Caps teams of the past few years. The Islanders scored more than the Caps in the regular season but also gave up more goals. Both teams are even at 5 on 5 play. The Islanders are better at getting shots through and a bit better at shot suppression. However, the Caps have clear advantages on special teams and faceoff numbers. Considering how even the teams are at 5 on 5, special teams may decide this series.

Here is how the Caps and Isles compare in some advanced stats:

Capitals Islanders Regular Season Advanced Stats
Stat
Capitals
Islanders
SAT % (Corsi)
51.35
52.79
USAT % (Fenwick)
50.03
52.78
SPSV % (PDO)
1005
993

The Islanders have a clear advantage in shot attempts and unblocked shot attempts percentage. In fact, they were actually one of the unluckiest teams in the league in the regular season, with a SPSV% that was 25th in the league and worst among playoff teams, which means that they may in fact be better than they have been. The Caps on the other hand have a relatively high SPSV% (11th in the league), signifying that the Caps may regress just a little bit. This is the area that will give the Caps fans the most angst.

Overall, these are two very talented and evenly-matched teams who will put on a show in the first round. If the Caps D and Braden Holtby continue to flourish, there is no reason the Caps can't go toe-to-toe with the Isles at 5 on 5.

Where the difference will be made in this series is the special teams. The Caps have clear advantages in both their power play and their penalty kill, and if the Isles can't stop the Caps power play, it's going to be tough for them to win.

Prediction: Caps in 6.

This series can go down to the wire, but in the end I think the Caps' advantages in special teams and experience will give the Caps the edge.

Whatever happens, this will surely be a great series and great playoffs. Make sure to tune in on Wednesday, and as always...

LET'S GO CAPS!!!

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